Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
